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Research related to:  Trade

The Surprising Instability of Export Specializations

We study the instability of hyper-specialization of exports. We have two main findings. (1) Specializations are surprisingly unstable: Export ranks are not persistent, and new top products and destinations replace old ones. Measurement error is unlikely to be the main or only determinant of this pattern. (2) Source-country factors are not the main explanation of this instability: Only 20% of the variation in export growth can be explained by variation in comparative advantage (source-by-product factors), while another 20% of the variation in export growth can be explained by variation in bilateral (source-by-destination) factors.

Eroding the Culture of Contracting: Aid, Not Trade?

We analyze how two well-known development policies—international trade and aid—affects the ‘culture of contracting.’ The culture of contracting refers to those cultural characteristics—trust, respect, level of self-determination, and level of obedience—which allow for the impersonal exchange necessary for growth and development. Theoretically, trade and aid may affect the culture of contracting for better or worse. We empirically analyze both possibilities and find that international trade generates, on net, positive effects while foreign aid generates negative effects on the culture of contracting. The more open a country is to trade and the less aid it receives, the more likely it is to possess a stronger culture of contracting.
Christopher J. Coyne and Claudia R. Williamson